Monday, December 31, 2007

How reckless and unchecked Monetarism is destroying Capitalism

Equitable access to capital and a strong middleclass that will create the consumer to buy the products the capitalists make are imperative to a system of capitalism. With that in mind, all those who love the USA and Capitalism should question as to what had been going on in the USA in the last few decades without disregarding the lessons from history, and its dreadful habit to repeat.

History has clearly shown us that a Welfare State not only could create idle poor at the bottom but also could create aimless and comatose wealthy at the top (i.e. Pre revolutionary France and Russia). Then to understand how the USA, the forefront of Capitalism, has turned itself into creating a welfare state for a handful of wealthy in the history of mankind, we have to contrast some unfolding events in the last two decades keeping the tenets of capitalism in mind.

Almost every guest, who shows up on CNBC, the premier business news channel speaks up against any sort of welfare program by the government. Conservatives agree wholeheartedly that welfare is demeaning to all people. But nobody adds to that by pointing out that regardless of your economic status, working for a living is the proudest thing to do, to make people feel accomplished, and that welfare is bad both for the poor or the rich. Incidentally, this is one reason why Warren Buffett does not want to leave all his wealth to his children: He fears of creating a generation with his last name living on welfare. Logically, either provided by the government or by a private trust the consequences of living on cash flow without having to work is the same: People who have nothing to do in life lose the potential for innovation and persistence that are the pillars of capitalism.

Let’s turn back to our guests at CNBC: Even before the argument of welfare being demeaning, could take hold almost all these guests turn around and ask for money from the Federal Reserve Board. As amazing as it sounds this is what’s going on this country, and for that matter, this is what has been going on since the mid-1980s in this country. Powerful people are screaming against any welfare but openly ask for easy money. And surprisingly they are given all the money that they ask for both by borrowing and creating.

A consequence, many do not seem to realize is that the way the money is being distributed, inadvertently assures that the trillions of money, stay within the hands of a very few wealthy in the country. That explains why there is no inflation in consumer goods, except in Food, Energy and Shelter, even after such a huge amount of new creation of money. When money does not trickle down to the consumer who account for close to two third of the buying power in our GDP then there won’t be consumer inflation.

The Federal Reserve Board has the power to create money in the USA. The top percentile in the country own stocks and bonds and hence these people measure the economy mostly by how well the stock market is doing, because that is what affects their pocketbook. So since the 1980s they have been running the stock market to stratospheric levels. To give you facts, the 1980s began with Dow Jones Index at 836 (it took close to 200 years for it to get to 836) and now it stands over 13,000. This was possible only because so much money was put into the system both through unimaginable amount of borrowing (turning the USA, the greatest creditor, to be the biggest debtor in the world) and through unfathomable creation of trillions of dollars by the Federal Reserve Board added to this borrowing.

With this giant leap up in the stock market, that made billions of easy money to a handful of people, one would think that this powerful group would be happy. But they are not. Still each and every day they parade on television and ask for more money (the term—or the doublespeak—they use is liquidity) each time the market has a correction. Then during their spare time they come on television to denounce the politicians who propose any welfare (such as healthcare for kids). That is, they fearlessly and almost with no opposition on the air, attack any welfare to anyone else but them. One question comes to my mind is why do American people put up with this sort of media monopoly where the opposition point of view is not equally heard.

It’s like the spoiled and selfish older kid in the family asking toys from parents but throwing a temper tantrum when he sees the parents also giving some toys to the little brothers and sisters. The older kid would point out how parents are not only making the little kids depend on welfare, but also turning them to idleness (rather than making them innovative and work hard to find money to get their own toys) but also destroying the family budget because of this extravagance. They want to make it simple for the parents: Borrow and create money, but give only to me! Taken this logic in macro sense, they are saying, give the handful of us, the elite, more liquidity and that’s all we need to make this country great!

As amazing as it sounds the elite have been getting their wish and welfare since the 1980s with only a few objections from the society. Just don’t take my word for it. Turn on to CNBC and listen. Each and every day the spokesmen for the powerful parade on and ask for more and more liquidity, without any shame in spite of the amazing amount of liquidity that has been created since 1987. The Federal Reserve Board gladly oblige and provide them all what they need.

Let’s look at fiscal policy and monetary policy, the two major economic policies, to put in perspective as to what’s going on and who is benefiting by giving priority to one policy over the other.

In the recent years, most western nations adopted Keynesian theory in practicing fiscal policy. According to Keynesian theory, when there is a recession, the government goes on deficit spending, building infrastructure of the country and giving opportunity for the small businessman to create business and then create jobs. Also the government takes care of some basic but essential needs for survival of the population during those hard years. Then when the economy turns around, the government covers the deficit by increased taxes to create a surplus and brings the country’s budget in balance. This is no different than the rich well established parents helping out their children at the early stage of their life till they get a foothold and then asking them to pay back debts when they start making some money. Capitalism cannot function without capital; fair access to capital for all people are needed as much as all cogs have to be oiled for the machine to work efficiently.

With Monetary Policy, such deficit spending or taxation is disregarded. Instead, the Monetarists seem to believe in creating enough money and pumping it to the economy to absorb shocks of any recession while letting the free market take its own course in solving all ills. In spite of the fact that historical consequences of excess money creation have been dismal, it is not entirely bad if the government sticks to some established rules in practicing Monitory Policy. Such rules should be to creating new money based on the increase in population and in increase in growth of the economy. But that is not what happened since the 1980s. First they began by borrowing trillions of dollars and then through the Fed they went on to create trillions in money without any regard to the level of growth in the economy or the population.

History has shown us that reckless increase in money supply to be extremely dangerous. There is evidence to suggest that such increase in money supply in Germany to be one major reason for the World War II. It’s the horrendous effect of runaway inflation and consequential instability that brought in a monster like Hitler to power. People do not elect such demagogues spewing hatred in ordinary times.

There is enough evidence to prove that 1929 crash in the USA was a consequence of excess money creation in the decades leading to that crash. The memory of that crash kept the US government economist in check so that they have managed to build an amazing economy in the USA till the late 1960s. The same way Germans still have not forgotten what inflation did to their country leading it to war. Thus they have taken sternest measures each time the ravages of inflation started to raise its head.

But human memory is short-lived and definitely does not seem to last more than a few decades. So starting in the 1970 s the USA went back to reckless money creation once again. They began the assault by revising the reason for the 1929 crash to be lack of money creation as opposed to the earlier conviction of the crash to being a result of too much of money creation in the hey-days of recklessness. If the Fed kept on creating more money leading to the 1929 crash, they claimed (using much more complicated terms), then the stock market wouldn’t have crashed and all the major problems would have gone away. Assured by such confidence, they went back to where they stopped in 1929, and began money creation all over again in the 1970s. This new zeal for money creation is what ran the Dow Jones up over 1500 percent and still inflating it 300 points a day frequently even now.

This increase in money supply now has brought the country to the same place it was just before the crash of 1929. To give one example, the total debt in the nation is over 300 percent of the GDP. It has caused inflation in commodities (both in oil and gas and agricultural commodities such as wheat) again to unacceptable levels. This process is also being reflected in the price of Gold. Free Market advocates often say such imbalances in a society will be corrected through innovative human intervention creating alternative products. The question is at what cost?
Today inflation is decapitating the economies in the Third World: The people who can least afford, live a hand-to-mouth existence, not being able to keep up with inflation. In the USA this inflation shows up in certain goods. But it does not show up in consumer goods (such as computers to autos to clothes) because globalization has shifted production, along with inflation, to cheap labor countries. So now we have bifurcated price increases in the USA: no consumer inflation but there is asset inflation.

Capitalism practiced under rule of equitable law, is an innovative economic system that can wipe out poverty in the world. Those who criticize capitalism do not really understand the energy, spirit and practicality of Capitalism. This is mainly because many people wrongly associate the current economic system in the USA with capitalism. This is the biggest myth: the USA is not a capitalist country anymore but as explained above, it has become the biggest Welfare Society in the history of mankind. Unopposed, unchecked and uncontrolled Monetarism has played the key role in creating this strange welfare state. However, not too many people point this out since monetarism provide welfare only to a handful of people and they control the media as it always has been in the history of mankind. Money being created stays in the hands of the ownership society and it would trickledown only if there is bargaining power by the labor. There is no such bargaining power anymore and that explains why the working class wages in the USA have been stagnating since the 1980s.

There was a time Capitalism thrived well in the USA to make America great. The current assault to the USA through this stealth welfare system began only a few decades ago. The USA being such a huge economy could absorb such abuses to its dynamic financial infrastructure for a few decades. And that’s how it absorbed this reckless money creation shock in the decades leading to 1929. This time also, the dynamic US economy has managed to absorb such shocks. But sooner or later it will catch up. Fortunately for the USA we had one of the most dynamic leaders, Presidents Roosevelt coming to power in 1929, and with the help of Keynesian theory created massive job creating projects along with building infrastructure.

Nothing less than that massive movement and government intervention could have saved the USA after decades of onslaught by money creation that kept the money in the hands of a very few people. Capitalism to properly work there has to be class of consumer who could buy what capitalist make. If the economic calamity we are facing now due to the last few decades of reckless monetarists’ welfare state is not handled properly this time, the same way it was handled by President Roosevelt, the USA will decline, fall and collapse like the rest of the welfare states before it.

To blame capitalism because of the system that is being practiced in America is like blaming some great religions for being held hostage by a handful of fanatics who preach hatred, murder and social strife in the name of religion. It’s not the religion that is at fault but that handful of fanatics who are holding the religion as a base to brainwash people for their selfish needs.
The media, especially the lack of free and objective media, throughout history has played a major role in contributing to every major disaster since the process of brainwashing people has been behind every such disaster and destruction that has taken place in the world. Do you think the Germans, such great people, would have just sat idle while their government committed unimaginable crime except for the fact that they were brainwashed by their media so diligently? The same way the media in the USA has played and still plays a major role in turning the greatest capitalist system to become the biggest welfare society in the history of mankind.
Capitalism is about giving freedom, opportunity and access to capital to every person who would like to work to make his or her life better. What system could be better than this? Wouldn’t any of you be a part of such a great system? Contrast this with a system of welfare where the government gives handouts to people so they don’t have to do any work or be innovative to live a comfortable life. Such a system will make people lazy, useless and dangerous. Anyone who gives welfare to people to make them so useless has to hate humanity as to see people turning into lazy slobs, wasting most of their time in leisure, crime or both and also engaged in empty talk than being industrious and innovative individuals.

In the early 1900s the Great American economist Thorstein Veblen gave an account of a leisure class in having nothing to do with their time creating misdeeds in the society to get attention. For that matter over 2000 years ago, the Greek philosopher Aristotle, who many people still consider to be the wisest man lived on earth, said the same thing in a different way. In Politics Aristotle said that most of the evil in the society is committed by the poorest percentage and the richest percentage: the poorest since they are hopeless and the richest since they can get away with it.

A society that creates a class of poor so hopeless of any progress and a leisure class who become rascals, leads the society to self-destruction creating a major conflict between these two polar opposite but equally evil groups. Such societies are reflected in the working of the most of the Third World and unfortunately the USA is fast joining that rank. As mentioned, this is only possible when there is no freedom of press and lack of objective journalism in a society. It’s the middleclass that keeps the society and order.

The USA carried that mantle as the greatest capitalist nation in the world since its inception for over 200 years with some threats to its existence within the system brought on by powerful people who wanted to abuse the system for their selfish gains. Those attempts did its share of damage to the society. But powerful, patriotic and unselfish leaders, who couldn’t be bought out for any amount of money the lobbyist could put together, managed to rise above, at the worst hour and resolve those invidiousness, often fighting powerful and hostile forces and always bringing the society back on the right path.

Then as explained above, with the 1980s the most destructive attack on capitalism began and it continues unabated till today. The consequences of those attacks have shattered the fabric of the society. One of the major victories of the self-destructive attackers of capitalism of this era was the taking over of the free media. Thus they have found the way to brainwash the population and further their selfish cause of providing welfare to a handful of powerful people who use the USA as their private property while ignoring the masses.

To repeat, capitalism cannot survive without the consumer. There has to be a large consumer group to buy all the products the capitalists make. The consumer in the USA is the solid middleclass but if the middleclass is killed then there won’t be that consumer class. The middleclass had been vanishing slowly for the last few decades. At the early stage of this absence of the middleclass the government could step in and buy what the handful of capitalists (this is the sign of decay in capitalism: only a handful end up producing with oligopolies taking over and destroying small business) are producing with taxpayer money.

So that is what has been happening. In the last few years, the biggest job creator in the country has been the government in addition to it being the biggest buyer of corporate products. Also the number of government contracts to the corporations using taxpayer money have multiplied in the last two decades. But this sort of substitution of the middleclass by the government could go on only for so long.

In a way we should be able to understand the absence of media criticizing this reckless behavior of the system in the USA. One cannot blame the individual journalist. They are just trying to make a living like the rest of the people, except for a few angry, impatient journalists who seem to be in a real hurry to make a large amount of easy money by pandering to corrupt in the society. Such exceptional journalists seem to take sadistic pleasure in beating on the head of any journalist that advocates reason and fairness. But in fairness to most of them, the journalists have to play along with the wishes of the owners of the major media that is more and more becoming a few public corporate interests who are under huge pressure to show increasing revenue. A huge percentage of such revenue comes from advertising by large organizations that immensely benefit by a corrupt and a non-transparent system. So these journalists have to accommodate the wishes of this powerful minority.

A democracy cannot survive under this sort of onslaught. A society of lies, speculation and injustice will sooner or later destroy itself. That has been shown throughout history. As mentioned, excess money creation was responsible for creating the Second World War. The bottom line here is sooner or later this reckless money creation may also lead to World War III unless people realize what’s going on and elect responsible leaders. If not do not be surprised if the excess money creation this time bring this world to the brink of a major catastrophe.
Right now, than ever before, the USA needs the right leadership and let’s hope people will make the right judgment and bring back another leader such as President Roosevelt to clean up the damage that had been done by the monetarists.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Making billions in a few hours… how you can participate…

Think about this picture: September 18th, 2007, in mid afternoon, the Fed predictably cut the interest rates 50 basis points. Just in the matter of a few minutes the Dow Jones ran wild going over 300 points. Do you have any idea how many billions were created in the hands of a few people in those few hours? Wealth that was created within those few hours may have been the easiest money that is created in the society.

Contrast that with the situation of most salaried persons. Whatever the insignificant amount you made during those few hours will come to you only after paying both a regular tax and a social security tax to the government (who incidentally spends it religiously and in addition borrows to spend even more). But those billions of wealth that was created in the hands of those lucky few who are in the stock market would be allocated to them with no tax liability since they will be paying taxes only when those stocks they own are sold. Even then they pay taxes at favorable capital gain rates and, at any rate there is no social security tax deduction from such easy money. Social security taxes is specially a waste since the government really does not separate those and invests wisely for your old-age retirement benefit but mixes the collection with the rest of your taxes and spends it with very little accountability (at least that has been the trend in the last few decades).

In addition, this transfer of wealth, regardless of how you look at it is a zero sum game. There is a winner and a loser. Even though most money that is being created comes out of thin air, thanks to the fiat money system we practice, with the Federal Reserve Board in charge of such creation (making it to appear as such new wealth creation to be a win-win solution), still a huge supply of dollars put pressure on the value of currency.

Consequently on September 18, 2007 as the Dow Jones was creeping up at a ferocious speed creating immense wealth, and as the spokesman for the ownership society rallied in CNBC studios exchanging high-fives and laughter, the dollar crashed down precipitously against the major currencies. Oil prices climbed over $82.00 per barrel. That translates into most of the salaried persons paying high prices for gas with their depreciated dollars. So not only you did not make any money out of this deal, but lost. Also such low interest rates will lead the average person to continue to use his home as the ATM machine and borrow more for survival in the society where the working man’s salary has been stagnated for the last few decades without acknowledging that he will have to pay those loans back sooner or later.

Then the question is why would anyone with any sense work on a salaried job under the condition? Ignorance of the system as to how to make money or indifference as to what’s going around them could be the only logical answer. The right thing to do is for people to take a look at these issues seriously. I hope this article will open your eyes, for that matter. Even if you were one of those people who really do not care to make money, the fact is, in the current environment you cannot remain passive and expect the things to turn out okay. You either join the party or you won’t survive in this world.

Therefore, you have to pay attention, learn the system and make money through it or you will be caught up in a huge surprise. A hard working person may think that it is okay for people to make that sort of money in the market because they are gamblers and he or she would rather work hard and settle for a middle class life and not engage in gambling. But the trend is clear, when the whole nation becomes a nation of gamblers there wont’ be any space for the middle class. Runaway inflation will destroy their purchasing power. History has proven this again and again.

Then the answer is either to join the gamblers, or find a way to benefit from the action of the gamblers without gambling. There is one good example you can follow if you want to do the latter. And that is to follow the Warren Buffett way. Warren Buffett although he does not gamble, belongs in the ownership society because he has a company well situated in the stock market so when the gamblers run the markets wild he benefits from that craze along with the rest of the market participants. So even if the value of money goes down and inflation hurts the lifestyle of most people who do not benefit from such speculative bubbles, people like Buffett would not be hurt because his wealth appreciates along with everybody else’s wealth in the ownership society. This amounts to having your horse in the race when the whole nation makes money out of horseracing because some of them will bet on your horse and you will get your share of it.

In other words look for and own a piece of fundamentally sound company, run by good management that is listed in the stock market. This is something that most of the salaried persons should look into at the minimum. That way when the gamblers run the markets wild with the Federal Reserve giving the push needed by depreciating the value of money, you will still hold a strong hedge over inflation with your share of the ownership society. This is the only way I could explain how one could survive in a world that is too complicated for most hardworking and honest people to understand.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Understanding the society and making money within the system…

No one in the world can become wealthy by being naïve. But if you are objective enough to understand the world that we live in and learn what’s going on without emotion or prejudice then you have a fighting chance of becoming super wealthy through the system. You can learn more about how to do that by reading my book "Uncommon Commonsense Steps to Super Wealth—Your (Hero’s) Journey." There in my book, I have shown with adequate examples that one does not have to be a genius to be super wealthy.

In understanding the society we live in here are some facts. President Reagan demonstrated that as long as any politician avoids the plight of the working man and gives all the breaks possible to the wealthiest percentile in the USA—who holds the collective voice in the free media—then they will show their gratitude by covering the politician with an impenetrable Teflon Coat. Thus he can even turn the greatest creditor nation into the biggest debtor yet the media will focus on the "vision thing" which is so intangible, that they would claim, only the smart people are able to decipher. So if you cannot figure out why President Reagan is so great it is because you are stupid, they will say. It’s like believing in God. Don’t question common wisdom.

You may ask, if so why President Bush, who gave away more to the wealthiest percentile even than Reagan is so unpopular. Think twice. President Bush is very popular with the media. Just listen to the rightwing radio that dominates the airwaves and to the Fox News. For that matter, when was the last time you saw a single journalist at the White House news conferences throwing a real controversial question to the President?

President Bush is so unpopular only because of the old saying that "you cannot fool all the people all the time." (Also lest we forget that it says, "you can fool some people most of the time"). History has enough evidence to illustrate that media could fool people only so long. For example, before each major revolution or common man’s victory newspapers have steadfastly defended those who governed; yet people rose against them. This should explain why President Bush is unpopular. No need to thank the major media for telling us the truth as to what’s going on. They mostly did not.

Alan Greenspan is another one of those politicians (make no mistake he is a politician, although you are told that the Federal Reserve is above politics), who wears a thick Teflon Coat. In the eyes of the media he can do nothing wrong. Alan Greenspan ran the Fed through obfuscation. Even he admits that now in his memoirs as to how he obfuscated the congressmen who held him in such high regard. There is nothing genius about Greenspan except his excellence in communication skills. He could almost make anyone believe anything he says. He was so gifted in mesmerizing the clueless, that even the famous editor of "The Washington Post", Bob Woodward wrote over a 300 page of homage to him entitled "Maestro".

It is partly because of Mr. Greenspan and the Fed that we have oil over $80 now and gold over $700 an ounce. This inflation has spread to most items that matter but when the government measures inflation they do not include what really matters to common man’s daily living. So they have reserved the bragging rights on an economy with insignificant inflation and praise the supply side economics for that. It’s the same with unemployment. In the rest of the civilized world, anyone who has no health coverage is considered a destitute, equivalent to being unemployed. Here out of the 150 million or so working population about 47 million do not carry health insurance that is only because they have no money to pay the premium (because of inflation in healthcare—that is not shown on inflation figures—and because they are under employed).

With enough freedom to print money one does not have to have a genius as the Chairman of the Fed but one needs only a reckless man who is willing to create enough money to avoid any economic disaster and seek temporary relief (history has shown that such relief can last for about 3 decades or so). You may argue that it cannot happen because then there would be inflation. However, logic would dictate that there would be inflation only if such wealth creation would trickle down to the middle class. With almost two third of the CPI is represented by wages, if wages do not increase (due to globalization) then such wealth will not trickle down. As the statistics show (unless they have changed the way that is being measured also) working man’s wages has stagnated since the 1980s. To add to this, most of the goods are now imported from the Third World at such cheap rates, and with the accumulation of supply of consumer goods, inflation on such consumer goods are also on check (actually paving way to deflation in consumer goods) giving more power to the Fed to keep on creating more money and pass them on to the top percentile in the society.

When Alan Greenspan began as the Chairman of the economic council for the newly elected great communicator, the Dow Jones was only 838. And by the time he was over as the Chairman of the Fed Dow Jones as risen to over 11,000. Nothing in the country (the GDP or the population) grew at that pace to justify this wealth creation. Also along with the trillions of dollars President Reagan borrowed this, new wealth generated in the financial markets went into the hands of a very few. Some of it trickled down to the middle class but only in the form of debt. Thus today, in the USA, common people are in debt than any people had ever been in the history of the world. Finally to make the case for inflation when there is too much money in the world, there is inflation, that is created by the wealthiest in the world and that shows up in stock market prices and commodity prices. That’s what happens when money being created stays in the hands of a few.

Again to repeat, this article is not meant to attack the system and be emotional about it but only put that in perspective and to request the reader not to be naïve but understand the system and learn to make money through the system. And to that end my book will help you immensely.

Monday, September 3, 2007

Surest Casino to make money from now till Presidential Elections of 2008

It doesn’t matter if you were a Republican or a Democrat, your priority should be to make money for yourself. No one could become wealthy by being naïve. True, some people become rich by being at the right place at the right time, often being clueless as to how they became so wealthy. For example, if you were lucky to have become an employee, with stock options, of a company that went public at the right time, you would be a multimillionaire by now. Under those circumstances, you may not even have any clue as to what really happened, while everybody around you thinks that you are a genius. That is the power of the public stock market and if given the opportunity you should do the same.

For the rest who were not that lucky, here is my guess (based on observing trends but not based on any fundamental facts) as to something that you can look to increase your wealth from now till the 2008 presidential elections:

The Republican controlled Federal Reserve Board with the help of Republican controlled media will do all in its power to keep the stock markets up until the elections in 2008 because, I think, this is the major index they use to measure how strong the economy is. In a way they are right, if you equated economic strength to paper wealth (which I think is a false premise), because most of the pension funds and retirement fund money are in the market. (They badly want another a republican administration so they can have another 8 years of welfare for the richest on earth. Considering the amount of wealth they have made thanks to the taxpayers in the last 8 years, another 8 years could make them invincible—more power to you if you can participate in that because that is absolutely the easiest way—to use Machiavellian logic). With upside so huge, according to my calculations, they will do all in their power to hang on to power. And running the markets higher till the elections would be considered a priority. So they will:

1. Create money and dumping off helicopters if necessary.

2. Grant huge government contracts to large corporations, with tax money and borrowing the balance, so there will be increased revenue and increased GDP (another one of those useless indices) to show that we are still growing.

3. Have a parade of pundits in the media saying nothing but good news about the economy sharing banter as opposed to having bitter opposite viewpoints and with the host patting all who thus agree on the back with the compliment: "The Great American".

Every smart gambler and speculator knows this predictable behavior and will be in the US stock market to cash out big. As to the financial outlook in the next few quarters, corporations have so much cash that they will buy back significant number of shares, so you can expect earnings per shares to beat expectations. Then at each one of those surprise-EPS announcements, you can expect the markets to run 200 points plus a day, while on business news channels all the commentators marvel at the resilience of the US economy.

In order for you to participate in this gambling environment you should read some good books on how to trade, arbitrage and also how to hedge your bets. You have to learn to hedge because even under the careful eye of the Federal Reserve some people lose faith and start dumping stocks in panic. So there will be wild swings. This has been the common occurrence in all the bubbles in history going all the way back to John Law’s France and Mississippi scheme (read about it in Google). So be very careful.

I personally believe that stock market is the place to be. When it comes to real estate, only the ultra expensive markets (over $20 million homes) will still be safe since those guys have more money than they don’t know what to do with. But the middle class and low income housing, I don’t think will have another bubble, because none of the people in those socioeconomic groups have any money. Do not expect this newly created wealth to trickle down to them since the middleclass wages will remain stagnated, as it has been since the 1980s and those groups are in debt to their eyeballs so don’t believe they can borrow any more either.

As far as the currency is concerned dollar will continue to go down. It does not mean you should short the dollar because the rest of the world depending on the US markets to buy their products cannot afford to have their currencies appreciate against the dollar so they will also print huge amounts of their currencies to support the declining dollar. You can expect all the printing machines around the globe to start working in full capacity following the leader the US Federal Reserve putting to shame all the printing presses in Germany that printed enough currencies to be carried out in wheelbarrows to provide adequate liquidity to fight any crisis. As John Kenneth Galbraith used to say one thing history teaches us is that it repeats itself and history teaches us nothing. Thus people would never learn that creating liquidity, as simple as it sounds, is not the way to solve genuine economic problems. On the other hand, I doubt too many people want to solve economic problems but they rather focus on making quick money.

I don’t’ think the commodity prices will also go up that much because the global economic engine is slowing with too much supply of consumer goods in inventory creating deflation in such supplies. This is good news for the US government since these are the items they give weight to in measuring inflation while ignoring most that matter to the US consumer such as healthcare, energy, shelter and food cost. With inflation being measured thus under control, the Fed even have more reasons (as will be pointed out by the economists in the media loudly and clearly) to reduce interest rates and increase liquidity to run the markets higher.

With these issues in place, I think the US stock market is the place to be till November 2008 presidential election. However, it would be wise to get out of the market a bit early before those who gamble other peoples’ money attempt to get out. So be very careful. Those professionals who gamble have only to lose others’ money but most of you who would gamble in such speculations would lose your own money.

Friday, August 31, 2007

What is the difference between government-controlled media and corporate-controlled media?

I am curious to find out as to how many people think that there is true freedom of speech in the US major media and as to how many people think that they cannot be easily brainwashed.
When you hear people saying things that are totally against their self-interest, I cannot think of any logical reason why a person would say such things unless the person is brainwashed. In a smaller scale, a person who applauds any state action that is against his or her self-interest is similar to a suicide bomber who kills himself to please a leader. They both are committing an action that is against their interest.

I grew up in the Third World where the government controls the press. The good thing about a system like that is almost every citizen, save the dumbest, knows that the press is full of lies. They just read the news for entertainment. But in America things are way sophisticated. The government has no hand in controlling the press except a government that gives welfare to the corporations that control the press; in that situation such a government controls the press indirectly. And under a condition like that only the very insightful people would recognize the bias in the US major media to help out a handful of people in the country at the expense of the whole society.

You don’t have to go too far to see that. Take a look at the US budget. Tax rates at the top are coming down decreasing the revenue of the country. Social security tax, a flat tax that all people pay, is going up. Also such social security taxes that should be kept in a trust account is not kept accordingly. But they are also used to balance the budget. And that’s why the social security system will go bankrupt sooner or later; they are also being spent as part of the welfare scheme.
Then look at where these taxes are being spent. About $400 billion of such dollars go to defense contractors (with a small percentage of that going to brave soldiers who defend the country). Another huge percentage goes to pharmaceutical companies. Very little goes to education or to help out the have-nots. Also let’s not forget that when government cannot tax enough people to get money to give away to this handful of people they borrow the rest. Do you hear any outrage in the major media about these issues? Media gets its advertising revenue as these giveaways trickle down to them so the media owners can get their huge bonuses. They all add up to only one thing. It is not possible to have freedom of speech in the major media.

There was a time in America people enjoyed true freedom of press. But starting the 1980s it slowly stared decaying. This is disturbing since every corrupt and fascist regime in history first terminated freedom of speech as the first step towards their climb to fascism. This never happens in one swing but in gradual but steady steps. This has to be a concern not only of American citizens but also of all people. The USA has the power to blow up any part of the world in a matter of seconds with almost no opposition. Therefore, it is essential that the USA will continue to have sane and rational leaders who are not easily corruptible. One of the best ways to assure this is to have transparency and that comes only from a full and free press. So long live Internet journalists.

How did the attack on freedom of press begin in the USA? It began with slogans that were easy to remember and could be repeated till one gets brainwashed and starts believing in what one repeats. First the true freedom of press, that spoke of the problems of the working man and woman, began to be defined as liberal bias. Every where you turned you could read this new term being coined. Many books were written on the subject complete with reckless facts and lies. The next phrase to be coined was Blame America First syndrome.

Any time the press questioned the motives of a politician who gives away the wealth of the country to a handful of groups such acts of investigative journalism were called unpatriotic and such criticism was equated with attacking the country itself. This is history repeating itself, in Germany when fascism was rising any attack on Hitler was considered unpatriotic and branded as Blame Germany First.

Once people are brainwashed with slogans they seem to go along with anything press wants people to believe. So when giving welfare to the corporations by taxing hardworking people, people would justify that by saying that as practical policy because corporations create jobs. When pointed out that such corporations send jobs out of the country they would say that it is as sign of times and that is fine too. When pointed out, that due to huge government contracts the CEO s of these companies make mega-million bonuses people would say that is okay too since that is capitalism. People who live out of their salary from month to month with no idea as to how to retire would defend the right of a CEO to take a huge bonus because of a government contract paid by the salary man’s taxes!

Let’s take the issue of healthcare. There is huge population in the country with no health insurance. Still the US government spends more money than any other country in healthcare. So the media would point out that as evidence of government kindness, but won’t point out that such expenditure is actually welfare for the healthcare corporations where profits are huge so that CEO s in that industry also could make mega-million bonuses.

If you want to know how brainwashed some people are, check this out: look for people with no health insurance and you will find a huge percentage still think that socialized medicine is bad. Sure it is bad for people who make huge profits off the misery of people, but for those who have nothing it is better. Yet the very people who have no health insurance will disagree with you.

This is the power of brainwashing. And that is the difference between the government-controlled press and the corporate-controlled press. The corporate-controlled media knows how to brainwash people. The government cannot even do that right.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Federal Reserve bailing out the gamblers

During the last few weeks almost all the Central Banks in the developed countries led by the our Federal Reserve Board pumped in billions in new money into the system to bail out most gamblers in the world who have been using the financial markets as grand casinos making money in speculative bubbles in the longest lasting speculative period in history. What happened to the theory of free and self-correcting markets? Those who have been preaching the survival of the fittest theory finally have succumbed to maintaining a survival of the stupidest (or wise-guy) world.

How can the central bankers get away by throwing away money to bail out a handful of wealthy, too ignorant and too greedy not to see a bubble in the making, while depreciating the money belonging to everybody else? Mainly because there is no longer any true freedom of press in the western world. The media is controlled by the same people who control the majority of wealth. They make easy money by investing in any asset that goes up in price giving no regard to fundamental value. So the government intervention to bail out the wealthy have avoided a meaningful correction one more time leaving all the bubbles on earth at the stratospheric levels that they hover. Now every gambler will be safely back in action in financial markets with full assurance that the central bankers will always be there to bail the big boys out regardless of how stupidly they will behave.

It is this same sort of behavior that brought us the crash of 1929. War, politics and finance are branches of the same tree. A damage to one branch precipitates and inflames the other two. If history is guide this is how this recklessness will also end up.

Then great American leaders such as President Roosevelt and patriotic military men such as General George Marshall came up with the New Deal and the Marshal plan to rescue the world. If all the money that is being pumped in by the central bankers are used in a major plan such as the New Deal then we can fix the crumbling and polluting infrastructure of the world, at the same time letting the newly created wealth to trickle down to every citizen who wants to do meaningful work instead of keeping the new money being created in the hands of the wealthy, who waste away their time without doing any meaningful work but gambling in the financial markets. It is important to have a class of consumers with money because without the consumer, capitalism will be dead and will be replaced by feudalism.

This is also so important at this time because there is a child dying of hunger in the world every few seconds and China with its massive slave labor force not only have managed to take away jobs from Americans (because of US corporate mindset to meet the calls for increasing profits to benefit from the market bubbles) but also have surpassed America as the biggest polluter in the world. And India is close behind. Now with three powers polluting the world in equal capacity the feast being thrown by the Central Bankers could be the beginning of the end because of global climatic changes.